Bring us the market question.
Commission Rushton to investigate a specific prediction market, proposition, market family or area of interest. We determine whether a defensible Rating can be built, assemble the relevant evidence and report what that evidence supports.
You commission the investigation. You do not commission the conclusion.
From one market question to a broader area of interest.
A commission can begin with a live market, a proposition you expect markets to address, a family of related markets or a broader question where prediction market probabilities may provide useful information.
US elections
Markets concerning US midterms, presidential elections, control of Congress, individual races or other measurable electoral outcomes.
Commodities
Markets concerning Gold, Oil, Silver or other supported commodity propositions where suitable historical evidence and reference data can be established.
Equities and markets
Supported questions concerning equity prices, indices, rates or other measurable financial outcomes represented through prediction markets.
Market families and themes
Groups of related markets where the objective is to understand which signals deserve greater attention, how expectations differ and where the evidence is weaker.
The question comes first. The Rating comes last.
Rushton establishes whether the requested assessment can be made responsibly before treating a Rating as an expected outcome.
Define the question
We establish the proposition, relevant markets and the precise question the commission needs to answer.
Build the evidence
We determine the appropriate historical evidence, reference data and comparable observations.
Test the comparison
We assess Comparability, Evidence Depth and the quality of the information signal the evidence can support.
Report what we find
Where the evidence permits a defensible assessment, Rushton produces its independent Rating and supporting research.
Have a market question?
Tell us what you want to understand. We will establish the scope, determine whether the work is feasible and quote for the commission before research begins.