Know which markets deserve your attention.
Prediction markets tell you what the market believes. Every Rushton Rating answers one question, how much attention should I pay to this market? Rushton independently assesses live prediction markets against relevant historical evidence, measuring the quality of the comparison and the depth of evidence behind it.
The higher the Rating, the greater our confidence in the market as a meaningful information signal.
Prediction markets can look equally authoritative on a screen while being supported by very different levels of evidence. Rushton reduces that complexity to a Rating from 0 to 100.
Comparability
Rushton asks how closely today's market resembles relevant markets that have already resolved. Comparison can incorporate multiple dimensions of market structure, position and lifecycle rather than relying on a single characteristic.
Better historical matches support greater confidence in what the evidence is telling us.
Evidence Depth
A compelling comparison is more useful when it is supported by a meaningful body of resolved evidence. Rushton therefore considers the depth of the qualifying historical evidence alongside its comparability.
More relevant evidence gives the assessment a stronger statistical foundation.
Three different questions
Rating, market probability and historical probability are not the same thing.
Market probability tells you what participants are pricing now. Historical probability tells you what happened across the comparable resolved evidence selected by Rushton. The Rushton Rating tells you how much confidence Rushton places in that assessment.
The difference between market probability and historical probability is the delta. A large delta does not create a high Rating, and a small delta does not create a low Rating. Agreement or disagreement is a finding. It is not the basis of the Rating.
Low Rating
A low Rating means Rushton can make a valid assessment, but the available comparison or evidence gives us limited confidence in the signal.
The market is not ignored. Its weakness is expressed through the Rating.
No Rating
No Rating means something categorically different. Rushton cannot make a technically valid assessment because required market data, reference data, comparable evidence or other essential inputs are unavailable or invalid.
No Rating is not a score of zero. It means no defensible Rating can be produced.
Rushton is independent of the exchanges it assesses. We do not operate an exchange and our Rating does not depend on whether Rushton agrees with the market price. Markets from different platforms enter the same analytical process when they represent comparable propositions and the required evidence is available.
Our interest is the quality of the market signal and the evidence behind it.
Common principles
The same core Rating principles apply regardless of platform. Rushton does not award confidence because a market comes from a particular exchange.
Market context matters
Different assets and market structures can require different reference data, trading calendars, settlement conventions or historical comparison logic. Those differences are respected without changing the meaning of the Rating.
Put prediction market intelligence to work.
Prediction markets increasingly express live probabilities around prices, economic events and other measurable outcomes. The challenge is not finding a probability. It is knowing how much confidence to place in it.
Rushton can apply its independent Rating methodology across broader market universes, groups of related markets and specific research questions. For professional users, that can mean identifying stronger information signals, interpreting movements across related markets and placing changing market expectations in historical context.
The public Terminal demonstrates the methodology. Rushton Ratings and Research can apply it to the markets and questions that matter to you.