HISTORICAL ASSESSMENT
RUSHTON SCORE
94
HISTORICAL CONFIDENCE
VERY HIGH
Historical evidence suggests today's market may be significantly underpricing YES.
Scores range from 0–100. Higher Rushton Scores indicate stronger historical evidence that today's market probability is accurately priced.
Why RUSHTON reached this score
Historical Similarity
Similarity Score: 89/100
Very High
Sample Strength
3,788 comparable historical markets
Excellent
|
YES |
NO |
| Today's Market |
40% |
60% |
| Historical Probability |
82% |
18% |
| Based on |
3788 comparable historical markets
|
Analysis
RUSHTON identified 3,788 comparable historical markets. Across those markets, YES resolved 82% of the time. Today's market is priced 42 percentage points lower than that historical outcome.
Conclusion
HISTORY FAVOURS THE YES SIDE
Historical evidence favours the YES outcome more strongly than today's market price suggests.