HISTORICAL ASSESSMENT
RUSHTON SCORE
41
HISTORICAL CONFIDENCE
LOW
Historical evidence provides limited support for today's market probability.
Scores range from 0–100. Higher Rushton Scores indicate stronger historical evidence that today's market probability is accurately priced.
Why RUSHTON reached this score
Historical Similarity
Similarity Score: 81/100
Low
Sample Strength
1 comparable historical markets
Weak
|
YES |
NO |
| Today's Market |
100% |
0% |
| Historical Probability |
100% |
0% |
| Based on |
1 comparable historical markets
|
Analysis
RUSHTON identified 1 comparable historical markets. Across those markets, YES resolved 100% of the time. Today's market is priced 0 percentage points very close to that historical outcome.
Conclusion
HISTORY FAVOURS THE YES SIDE
Historical evidence favours the YES outcome more strongly than today's market price suggests.