HISTORICAL ASSESSMENT
RUSHTON SCORE
43
HISTORICAL CONFIDENCE
LOW
Historical evidence provides limited support for today's market probability.
Scores range from 0–100. Higher Rushton Scores indicate stronger historical evidence that today's market probability is accurately priced.
Why RUSHTON reached this score
Historical Similarity
Similarity Score: 80/100
Low
Sample Strength
5 comparable historical markets
Weak
|
YES |
NO |
| Today's Market |
9% |
91% |
| Historical Probability |
20% |
80% |
| Based on |
5 comparable historical markets
|
Analysis
RUSHTON identified 5 comparable historical markets. Across those markets, YES resolved 20% of the time. Today's market is priced 11 percentage points lower than that historical outcome.
Conclusion
HISTORY FAVOURS THE NO SIDE
Historical evidence favours the NO outcome more strongly than today's market price suggests.