RUSHTON

Independent Prediction Market Ratings

← TODAY'S MARKETS
FINANCIAL · Bitcoin · KALSHI

Will Bitcoin finish above $82,500?

● LIVE   ·   Trading closes 5:00pm ET • Thu 24 Sep 2026
Today's Market
80%
YES PROBABILITY
Historical Probability
56%
YES OUTCOME
Difference
-24pp
HISTORY VS MARKET
Rushton Rating
RUSHTON RATING
92.0
/ 100
VERY HIGH
HOW MUCH ATTENTION SHOULD I PAY TO THIS MARKET?
Higher Ratings indicate greater confidence in Rushton's historical assessment of this market.
COMPARABILITY
85.0
How closely today's market can be compared with relevant historical markets.
EVIDENCE DEPTH
100.0
How substantial and useful the supporting historical evidence is.
RATING METHOD · 60% COMPARABILITY · 40% EVIDENCE DEPTH
Market vs History
INDEPENDENT ASSESSMENT FINDING
Historical evidence strongly favours YES, but not as strongly as today's market price suggests.
The difference between today's market probability and historical probability is reported separately. It does not determine the Rushton Rating.
Current Market Regime
CURRENT REGIME
NEUTRAL / MIXED
SUBDUED VOLATILITY
24H +0.0%
7D +0.9%
30D -3.8%
Recent underlying market direction. Context only — not currently weighted in the Rushton Rating.
Evidence
Historical Similarity
85/100
QUALITY OF HISTORICAL MATCH
Comparable Markets
1,462
QUALIFYING HISTORICAL MARKETS
Evidence Used
1,000
MARKETS USED IN ASSESSMENT
Market Probability
Market data supplied by Kalshi. Rushton independently rates prediction markets and their underlying market prices. Rushton Ratings are not financial, investment, betting or trading advice.