RUSHTON

Independent Prediction Market Ratings

MARKET CONCLUDED
This is the Rushton assessment published while this market was active. The assessment is preserved as a research record and has not been recalculated after the market concluded.
← TODAY'S MARKETS
FINANCIAL · Gold · Kalshi

Gold price on Aug 18, 2026? $4,355 USD/t.oz or above

SETTLED   ·   Trading closes
Today's Market
80%
YES PROBABILITY
Historical Probability
66%
YES OUTCOME
Difference
-14pp
HISTORY VS MARKET
Rushton Rating
RUSHTON RATING
54.0
/ 100
LOW
HOW MUCH ATTENTION SHOULD I PAY TO THIS MARKET?
Higher Ratings indicate greater confidence in Rushton's historical assessment of this market.
COMPARABILITY
76.0
How closely today's market can be compared with relevant historical markets.
EVIDENCE DEPTH
21.0
How substantial and useful the supporting historical evidence is.
RATING METHOD · 60% COMPARABILITY · 40% EVIDENCE DEPTH
Market vs History
INDEPENDENT ASSESSMENT FINDING
Frozen Rushton assessment from the publication-time research record.
The difference between today's market probability and historical probability is reported separately. It does not determine the Rushton Rating.
Evidence
Historical Similarity
76/100
QUALITY OF HISTORICAL MATCH
Comparable Markets
29
QUALIFYING HISTORICAL MARKETS
Evidence Used
29
MARKETS USED IN ASSESSMENT
Market Probability
Market data supplied by Kalshi. Rushton independently rates prediction markets and their underlying market prices. Rushton Ratings are not financial, investment, betting or trading advice.