RUSHTON

Independent Prediction Market Ratings

MARKET CONCLUDED
This is the Rushton assessment published while this market was active. The assessment is preserved as a research record and has not been recalculated after the market concluded.
← TODAY'S MARKETS
FINANCIAL · Gold · Kalshi

Gold price on Sep 3, 2026? $4,262 USD/t.oz or above

SETTLED   ·   Trading closes
Today's Market
80%
YES PROBABILITY
Historical Probability
67%
YES OUTCOME
Difference
-13pp
HISTORY VS MARKET
Rushton Rating
RUSHTON RATING
62.0
/ 100
MODERATE
HOW MUCH ATTENTION SHOULD I PAY TO THIS MARKET?
Higher Ratings indicate greater confidence in Rushton's historical assessment of this market.
COMPARABILITY
77.0
How closely today's market can be compared with relevant historical markets.
EVIDENCE DEPTH
39.5
How substantial and useful the supporting historical evidence is.
RATING METHOD · 60% COMPARABILITY · 40% EVIDENCE DEPTH
Market vs History
INDEPENDENT ASSESSMENT FINDING
Frozen Rushton assessment from the publication-time research record.
The difference between today's market probability and historical probability is reported separately. It does not determine the Rushton Rating.
Evidence
Historical Similarity
77/100
QUALITY OF HISTORICAL MATCH
Comparable Markets
30
QUALIFYING HISTORICAL MARKETS
Evidence Used
30
MARKETS USED IN ASSESSMENT
Market Probability
Market data supplied by Kalshi. Rushton independently rates prediction markets and their underlying market prices. Rushton Ratings are not financial, investment, betting or trading advice.