Will Gold finish above $4,261?

● LIVE · Trading closes 5:00pm ET • Mon 28 Sep 2026

Today's Market

72%

YES PROBABILITY

Historical Probability

57%

YES OUTCOME

Difference

-15pp

HISTORY VS MARKET

Rushton Rating

RUSHTON RATING

57.0

/ 100

LOW

HOW MUCH ATTENTION SHOULD I PAY TO THIS MARKET?

Higher Ratings indicate greater confidence in Rushton's historical assessment of this market.

COMPARABILITY

83.0

How closely today's market can be compared with relevant historical markets.

EVIDENCE DEPTH

18.0

How substantial and useful the supporting historical evidence is.

RATING METHOD · 60% COMPARABILITY · 40% EVIDENCE DEPTH

Market vs History

INDEPENDENT ASSESSMENT FINDING

Historical evidence strongly favours YES, but not as strongly as today's market price suggests.

The difference between today's market probability and historical probability is reported separately. It does not determine the Rushton Rating.

Current Market Regime

CURRENT REGIME

MODERATELY BULLISH

SUBDUED VOLATILITY

24H +0.0%

7D +4.3%

30D +6.0%

Recent underlying market direction. Context only — not currently weighted in the Rushton Rating.

Evidence

Historical Similarity

83/100

QUALITY OF HISTORICAL MATCH

Comparable Markets

QUALIFYING HISTORICAL MARKETS

Evidence Used

MARKETS USED IN ASSESSMENT

Market Probability

Market data supplied by Kalshi. Rushton independently rates prediction markets and their underlying market prices. Rushton Ratings are not financial, investment, betting or trading advice.