RUSHTON

Independent Prediction Market Ratings

← TODAY'S MARKETS
FINANCIAL · Bitcoin · POLYMARKET

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on September 24?

● LIVE   ·   Trading closes 12:00pm ET • Thu 24 Sep 2026
Today's Market
6%
YES PROBABILITY
Historical Probability
15%
YES OUTCOME
Difference
+9pp
HISTORY VS MARKET
Rushton Rating
RUSHTON RATING
79.0
/ 100
GOOD
HOW MUCH ATTENTION SHOULD I PAY TO THIS MARKET?
Higher Ratings indicate greater confidence in Rushton's historical assessment of this market.
COMPARABILITY
89.7
How closely today's market can be compared with relevant historical markets.
EVIDENCE DEPTH
63.0
How substantial and useful the supporting historical evidence is.
RATING METHOD · 60% COMPARABILITY · 40% EVIDENCE DEPTH
Market vs History
INDEPENDENT ASSESSMENT FINDING
Historical evidence favours YES more strongly than today's market price suggests.
The difference between today's market probability and historical probability is reported separately. It does not determine the Rushton Rating.
Current Market Regime
CURRENT REGIME
NEUTRAL / MIXED
NORMAL VOLATILITY
24H -2.5%
7D +10.5%
30D +4.6%
Recent underlying market direction. Context only — not currently weighted in the Rushton Rating.
Evidence
Historical Similarity
89.65/100
QUALITY OF HISTORICAL MATCH
Comparable Markets
100
QUALIFYING HISTORICAL MARKETS
Evidence Used
100
MARKETS USED IN ASSESSMENT
Market Probability
Market data supplied by Polymarket. Rushton independently rates prediction markets and their underlying market prices. Rushton Ratings are not financial, investment, betting or trading advice.