THE INDEPENDENT PREDICTION MARKET RATINGS AGENCY
Rushton compares today's oil prediction-market probabilities with outcomes from historically similar resolved markets — adding quantitative historical context to the probability you see today.
Only markets that satisfy Rushton's qualification and publication standards appear here.
An oil prediction market allows participants to trade contracts around a defined future Oil outcome, such as whether Oil will finish above a particular price. The market price can be interpreted as the probability currently implied by traders.
Today's market probability tells you what the market believes now. Rushton adds another perspective by finding historically comparable resolved markets and examining what actually happened in those cases.
These numbers answer different questions. Today's probability reflects the current market price. Historical probability describes the outcomes observed across Rushton's comparable historical sample. A difference between them is context — not a guarantee about what happens next.
Rushton deliberately filters the market universe. Markets must satisfy liquidity, pricing, timing and evidence standards before they are published. Sometimes the correct intelligence report is that no market currently qualifies.
Rushton is an intelligence layer for prediction markets. It uses historical evidence to place today's probability in context rather than telling users what to buy. Comparable markets, evidence strength and market maturity all matter before an assessment is published.
SEE HOW RUSHTON RATES →