Can you trust a prediction market probability?
A prediction market gives you a number that looks precise: 35%, 62%, 81%. But what exactly should you trust that number to mean? Rushton places today's market probability alongside evidence from historically similar resolved markets.
A market probability is useful information. It is not certainty.
The probability implied by a prediction market reflects the price traders are willing to accept now. It can aggregate information, expectations and disagreement remarkably efficiently. But it remains a live market price — one that can change as information, liquidity and sentiment change.
What does a 70% probability actually mean?
In simple terms, a market trading around 70% is implying that the outcome is currently considered substantially more likely than not. It does not mean the outcome is guaranteed, nor does it mean that comparable 70% markets have historically resolved YES exactly seven times out of ten.
Probability is also a price.
Prediction-market probabilities emerge from trading. Prices can therefore be affected by available liquidity, the information held by participants, market maturity and the balance between buyers and sellers. The number is informative precisely because it is a market — but that is also why context matters.
Why look at history?
Today's market tells us what traders believe now. Historical resolved markets let us ask a different question: when markets existed under comparable conditions before, what actually happened? That does not predict the future. It creates an evidence base against which today's probability can be viewed.
Different numbers answer different questions.
Today's probability describes the current market price. Rushton's historical probability describes outcomes observed across a qualifying set of comparable resolved markets. Agreement between them is evidence of historical support. A difference between them is context worth examining — not automatically a trading opportunity.
Market price tells you what people believe now. History tells you what happened when markets looked like this before.
Start with the live market
Rushton reads the current market probability and the conditions surrounding the live contract.
Find comparable history
Resolved markets are evaluated across multiple quantitative dimensions to identify historically comparable cases.
Measure the evidence
Similarity, evidence strength, sample size and historical outcomes determine whether the comparison is strong enough to be useful.
Sometimes the correct answer is: don't publish.
Rushton does not need to produce an assessment for every available market. Markets must first satisfy qualification and publication standards covering market quality, timing and historical evidence. If the evidence is not good enough, the market does not appear in the intelligence report.
How does Rushton build an assessment?
The Assessment Engine moves from a live market through historical comparison, evidence selection and resolved outcomes before publishing an assessment.
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